Market Talk with Piranha is currently moving to its new home at chrisperruna.com. The new site is up and running but many of the posts need editing as the images and stock charts did not transfer successfully (thanks blogger). I will post all new entries to both blogs – Thank you for your patience while I make this change!

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

ADVS on the Move

Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is on the move today after an upgrade was issued earlier this morning. The stock is up over 6% in early morning trading on volume larger than the average. ADVS was added to the MSW Index three weeks ago at $28.42 as a 200-day moving average play (similar to STRL – up over 40% in two months as another 200-d m.a. play).

Below is the analysis over the past three weeks as the stock has been on the index.

4/15/06
ADVS – 28.18, up a penny this week as it continues to hold the 50-d and 200-d moving averages. The trend buy is now with anticipation of a short term move above $30 (towards $34). Hold (always sell on a breakdown below your sell stop – below the 200-d m.a.)

4/8/06
ADVS – 28.17, sitting on the 200-d m.a. on the weekly chart and slightly above the 50-d m.a. on the daily chart. A trend buyer could enter right now with anticipation of a move higher (similar to STRL). Rating Buy to Hold (always sell on a breakdown below your sell stop – below the 200-d m.a.)

4/1/06
ADVS – 28.42, I bought the stock myself. I don’t know if it will work out but I placed money on the idea and have rules to protect the downside. As you have been noticing, I have been making several 200-d m.a. momentum buys in recent months. A twelve month price target will be from $38-$40 (FYI: I got in lower than the Index price as I bought on Thursday).

It will be interesting to see where the stock goes from here as I am looking at a short term target of $34 and a longer term target above $38 towards $40.

Piranha

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