Market Talk with Piranha is currently moving to its new home at chrisperruna.com. The new site is up and running but many of the posts need editing as the images and stock charts did not transfer successfully (thanks blogger). I will post all new entries to both blogs – Thank you for your patience while I make this change!

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Tracking LoJack, Can it steal the Show?

LoJack Corp. (LOJN) is expected to report earnings this Friday (May 5, 2006) and is another MSW candidate looking to make a “pop” above the long term 200-day moving average. I don’t know if it will be as successful as STRL and ADVS but the setup is very similar so I will place money on the trade and see what happens. If the report is poor, I will take the immediate loss and move on. If the report is positive, I will ride the wave and set a stop to lock in profits as time goes forward.

I make this blog post with a grain of salt based on my recent analysis on the MSW Index last weekend:

4/29/06:
LOJN – 22.11, the stock is in trouble. This is one of the first 200-d m.a. plays that have violated the long term support line without making that anticipated “pop”. Volume is low so we will keep it here until May 5 – earnings day. Place a hard stop to protect against bad news. If good news hits the wire, the stock will fly! Rating: Hold (50-d m.a. trend buy)”

The stock was first added to the MSW Index on March 18, 2006 at $22.53. here was the analysis: "LOJN – 22.53, LoJack is another candidate added this week based on long term support at the 200-d m.a. with a trend buy opportunity right now at the current price. Buy and set a sell stop about 7-10% below the purchase price (slightly below the 200-d m.a.)”

I feel a little better today with the 5%+ gain in early trading on strong volume but anything can happen before the earnings announcement on Friday. Remember, it’s not about winning and losing, it’s about the odds using strict money management rules.

Here is a look at some fundamental numbers for LOJN:
Earnings:
2003: 0.51
2004: 0.64
2005: 0.96
2006: 1.08 (E)
2007: 1.27 (E)

The entire year of 2005:
Q1: 0.14
Q2: 0.26
Q3: 0.30
Q4: 0.25

Q1 2006: 0.17 (E)

Institutional Ownership stands at 68%
Total Number of Institutions: 257 (Money Market: 119, Mutual Fund: 134, All Others: 4)
Institutions Buying Last reporting Period: 75
Institutions Selling Last reporting Period: 16
Top Institutional Sponsor: Wellington Management Company: 1.1mil shares

Let’s see what happens on Friday!
Piranha

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