Market Talk with Piranha is currently moving to its new home at chrisperruna.com. The new site is up and running but many of the posts need editing as the images and stock charts did not transfer successfully (thanks blogger). I will post all new entries to both blogs – Thank you for your patience while I make this change!

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

This “Buds” for HANS

Hansen Natural (HANS) was up over 16% today to close above $176 (an all-time high) after solid earnings and an announcement stating that the company will form a distribution agreement with Anheuser-Busch. I have written about the stock several dozens times on the MSW screens and at least a dozen times on this blog in 2006. I have personally owned the stock on two separate occasions (buying at levels that some investors thought were crazy – too high or extended). I took my first position above $66 in May 2005, even though the stock was up several hundred percent during the prior year. I sold the stock later that summer for a 50% gain due to my objective being hit (looking for a $60-$100 run).

I continued to follow the stock and watched as it built a base after a stock split. As soon as HANS broke out of the sideways consolidation, I jumped back in last November. I held the stock once again with the exact objective as I had the first time: another $60-$100 run. I was awarded with another 50%+ gain as the stock completed its second $60-$100 run in one year. After selling the stock due to another consolidation near $100, I removed it from the MSW index shortly thereafter.

I continued to cover the stock on an honorable mention list and wrote about it several times on this blog over the past two to three months. Looking back, I see that I sold too early but my objective was met so I can’t be greedy. Maybe I should have looked for a third entry into the stock as it is now worth $175 per share or $360 (pre-split adjusted from my original purchase last May). I left $75 on the table and another 75% if I bought back in above $100. If I held the stock without jumping in and out, I would now have a long term capital gain of 430%. It’s all hindsight now but the main point of this post is the fact that great stocks and highly priced stocks can go higher. HANS is now up over 1,800% since its initial breakout in May 2004. You read that right: 1,800% in two years. I managed to grab a compounded gain of slightly more than 100% and I am very happy but I think of what could have been! As soon as that thought creeps into my mind, I trash it because it’s an emotion detrimental to my overall plan.

Below is the actual analysis I gave when I added the stock to the MSW Index on May 7, 2005 and then again on November 11, 2005. HANS lived on the MSW Index for about 20 weeks and has been the number one stock on my honorable mention list for the past two months. HANS is a superstar in my eyes and I am extremely proud that I was part of its stock market history.

11/5/05:
HANS – 57.63
, With the breakout from the sideways movement over the past several months, HANS is back on the weekly screens with an up-trend that is still intact going back several years using the 200-d m.a. as support – AMAZING chart.

Hansen Natural (HANS) is back on the MSW weekly screens for the first time since August 6, 2005. The stock debuted the first time at a pre-split adjusted $66.56 and lasted for 13 consecutive weeks until its final screen at $91.46 on August 6, 2005. The stock reached a weekly high of $97 while on the MSW screens and basically completed a $60-$100 run. Since August, the stock split and has been correcting in a sideways pattern. The breakout this week made us take notice on a daily screen and after further analysis, we felt is was a good idea to bring back to the weekly screens. I will be very interested to see if the stock can make another $60-$100 run, that would be a remarkable feat to accomplish two times in one calendar year.


5/7/05:
HANS – 33.28
, (pre-split adjusted $66.56), we profiled the stock on the case study this week with major support down near $53. The stock boasts one of the strongest RS lines in 2004 and 2005.


I leave you with one question: Is HANS priced high or low in your opinion? Many thought is was overpriced and done last May at $66 (split adjusted $33).

Piranha

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