Market Talk with Piranha is currently moving to its new home at chrisperruna.com. The new site is up and running but many of the posts need editing as the images and stock charts did not transfer successfully (thanks blogger). I will post all new entries to both blogs – Thank you for your patience while I make this change!

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

NH-NL Ratio still Neutral

After a great response to the weekly market review I added on Friday, I felt it was necessary to update the NH-NL ratio chart to show how this indicator feels about the market. We have had five consecutive positive weeks for the first time since April 2006 but we are hovering in a neutral zone near 40% with a brief spike above 70% a couple weeks back. The month of April 2006 averaged 64% while the first week was in bullish territory above 80%, something we haven’t seen since.




I often get a question about the difficulty of this calculation to stay above 80% and I respond with the ratios from 2003 and 2004. Below is a sample of the data extracted from January 2004 when the ratio averaged 97% for the entire month. The readings were as follows (chart below):

Sunday, January 4, 2004: 892-10 (97.78%)
Sunday, January 11, 2004: 792-7 (98.25%)
Sunday, January 18, 2004: 896-6 (98.67%)
Sunday, January 25, 2004: 505-8 (96.88%)



Where do the Major Indexes stand in 2006?
NASDAQ: +1.38%
DOW: +7.81%
NYSE: +8.21%
S&P 500: +5.84%

Below is an updated look at the weekly averages for the NH-NL Ratio:
Saturday, January 14, 2006: 500-32
Saturday, January 21, 2006: 348-46
Saturday, January 28, 2006: 516-46
Saturday, February 4, 2006: 449-44
Saturday, February 11, 2006: 229-57
Saturday, February 18, 2006: 306-42
Saturday, February 25, 2006: 420-36
Saturday, March 04, 2006: 399-49
Saturday, March 11, 2006: 162-84
Saturday, March 18, 2006: 459-53
Saturday, March 25, 2006: 312-52
Saturday, April 01, 2006: 441-39
Saturday, April 08, 2006: 481-58
Saturday, April 15, 2006: 150-103
Saturday, April 22, 2006: 540-75
Saturday, April 29, 2006: 353-76
Saturday, May 6, 2006: 503-74
Saturday, May 13, 2006: 384-116
Saturday, May 20, 2006: 64-211
Saturday, May 27, 2006: 57-182
Saturday, June 3, 2006: 119-93
Saturday, June 10, 2006: 72-204
Saturday, June 17, 2006: 41-310
Saturday, June 24, 2006: 56-238
Saturday, July 01, 2006: 127-198
Saturday, July 08, 2006: 143-95
Saturday, July 15, 2006: 74-273
Saturday, July 22, 2006: 66 - 307
Saturday, July 29, 2006: 163-151
Saturday, August 5, 2006: 194-132
Saturday, August 12, 2006: 88-210
Saturday, August 19, 2006: 178-96
Saturday, August 26, 2006: 140-74
Saturday, September 2, 2006: 285-42
Saturday, September 9, 2006: 143-60
Saturday, September 16, 2006: 244-75 - This Week

Piranha

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3 Comments:

At 4:33 PM, Blogger Yaser Anwar said...

Chris,

Take a look at this commentary by Hussman, quite spot on.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060918.htm

 
At 4:40 PM, Blogger Yaser Anwar said...

Chris,

The NH-NL ratio is quite low even with strong rallies in the markets. This could be a prelude to a downfall in October. Last year we had a good September and horrible October. I think that is happening again.

Today's Yahoo earnings don't help the nasdaq nor do the terror alert. This could give the bears something to get worked up about

 
At 5:36 AM, Blogger Yaser Anwar said...

Chris do you have an email? If you don't want it spelled out here, email me at yaser @ yaser anwar . com

Btw: Check out BYD, has formed a double bottom and reached resistance on high volume, could be a potential break out

 

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