Baby Boomer Bust is BULL

This article was originally written last summer but I wanted to bring it to the top of the blog after reading Bill's lastest post over at No DooDahs.
“Boomer Bust?” I Don’t Think So!

I couldn't agree more and can't wait to read his full argument!

July 14, 2006:
I want to post about a subject that frequently appears in discussions online in recent years (especially over the past several months). It's about authors and their sheep followers that continue to predict these great depressions and crashes. I am not saying that it can't happen but their readers sure make them rich by reading most of their negative crap. What happened to the predictions from the books in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s? Read the book titles from the 1970’s and 1980’s and then read the book titles from today (listed below). Are you seeing a pattern? I didn’t go back to the 50’s or 60’s but I could find similar titles and then many more in the 1930’s. My point is: don’t believe everything you read and stop panicking by reading books from theorists (talkers, not doers). I must give credit to many of the books listed by Martin Schwartz and his book Pit Bull. I enjoyed reading it over my last vacation as it was very funny and educational (not a “how to” book).

Theorists make money selling books that sell fear while investors and entrepreneurs make money by following their ideas with money and hedging against a possible crisis. I learn from history and history shows us that these “crisis” books will always sell during tough times. Readers eat up this garbage because most people are trapped in the rat race working their asses off just trying to stay afloat. Their attitudes are typically piss-poor and they love to read about huge negative events (especially a crash that may hurt others).

Also notice how the same authors try to write books when the market starts to go back up again. For example, Howard J Ruff was writing about the crisis in 1979 through 1982 but then started to write about how to invest as a serious investor in 1987. Guess what: he was on the wrong end of the crisis in 1982 (the tail end) and the wrong end of the boom in 1987 (crash later that year). These “fools” are always late to the party and sell millions of books to the “average” person that engrosses themselves in fear!

These people, both now and then are not very accurate, they sell garbage in my opinion and I ignore it at all costs! I just hope many of you can do the same and make decisions based on what “YOU” see and not based on book sellers! Invest for now, ignore the garbage but be prepared for worst case scenarios by taking necessary steps but don’t radically change your life based upon the writings of a few authors that probably don’t invest themselves.

Books from the Past:
Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression by Douglas Casey (Hardcover - Jul 1980)

Crisis Investing for the Rest of the 90's by Douglas Casey (Hardcover - Oct 1993) - WOW was this wrong in 1993!

What the smart money is betting on in 1985: By Doug Casey by Douglas R Casey (Unknown Binding - Jan 1, 1985)

The Coming Currency Collapse and What You Can Do About It by Jerome F. Smith (Hardcover - Sep 1980)

Profits from silver by Jerome F Smith (Unknown Binding - 1983)

How you can profit from the coming devaluation by Harry Browne (Unknown Binding - 1970)

You can profit from a monetary crisis by Harry Browne (Unknown Binding - Jan 1, 1975)

How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years - A Crash Course on Personal and Financial Survival by Howard J. Ruff (Mass Market Paperback - 1979)

How to Prosper in the Coming Bad Years by Howard J. Ruff (Mass Market Paperback - Jul 1981)

Making money: Winning the battle for middle-class financial success by Howard J Ruff (Paperback - 1986)

Howard Ruff's crash course for the serious investor by Howard J Ruff (Unknown Binding - Jan 1, 1987)

How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years by Howard J. Ruff (Paperback - April 1984)


Books from Today:
The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It : Make a Fortune by Investing in Gold and Other Hard Assets by James Turk and John Rubino (Hardcover - Dec 28, 2004)

The Coming Economic Collapse : How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel by Stephen Leeb and Glen Strathy (Hardcover - Feb 21, 2006)

Defying the Market: Profiting in the Turbulent Post-Technology Market Boom by Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb (Hardcover - Jun 3, 1999)

Empire of Debt : The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis (Hardcover) by William Bonner, Addison Wiggin (November 11, 2005)

The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It (Paperback) by Daniel A. Arnold (November 25, 2002)

Image courtesy of http://mirrorimageorigin.collegepublisher.com/media/paper144/stills/x5jf138r.jpg

Piranha

How the Poker Craze can Help you Trade

As promised, I have uploaded the excerpt of my article from the latest edition of The Trader’s Journal.

The article explains on the basis of position sizing and expectancy and how poker has made me a better trader.

Enjoy:

How the Poker Craze can Help you Trade

Piranha

Published for the First Time

I am proud to say that I will be published for the first time next week in a magazine titled:
The Trader’s Journal


"Asia Pacific's Pre-eminent Trading Magazine is a product of DPR International Pte Ltd based in Singapore and distributed to Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Australia. Our primary focus is to research and educate you. It can be easily argued that it is the educated trader that will survive in the markets and we want to be a large part of your education.

The publisher, Dickson Yap, has a long history in the industry. Prior to launching the Trader’s Journal magazine, he worked in the Dow Jones Singapore office doing advertising and circulation. His businesses serve thousands of customers around the world in every time zone."

Some very prominent authors, traders and educators have contributed and still contribute to the magazine so I am honored that they published my article. Here are some of the names you may be familiar with:

Van Tharp
In the unique arena of professional trading coaches and consultants, Van K. Tharp stands out as an international leader in the industry. Helping others become the best trader or investor that they can be has been Tharp's mission since 1982. Dr. Tharp offers very unique learning strategies, and his techniques for producing great traders are some of the most effective in the field. Over the years Tharp has helped people overcome problems in areas of system development and trading psychology, and success related issues such as self-sabotage. http://www.iitm.com/

Tom Bulkowski
Thomas Bulkowski is an author and private investor. Before earning enough from his investments to “retire” at age 36, he was a hardware design engineer working at Raytheon on the Patriot air defense system and a senior software engineer for Tandy Corporation. http://mysite.verizon.net/resppzq7/

John F. Carter
John F. Carter grew up the son of Morgan Stanley stockbroker, and was introduced into trading as a sophomore in high school, and has been trading actively for the past 19 years. He studied international finance at the University of Cambridge in England before graduating from the University of Texas at Austin. In 1999, he launched www.tradethemarkets.com to post his daily trade setups in futures and equities. More recently he launched www.razorforex.com to focus on forex trading research and trading strategies. He’s a Commodity Trading Advisor with Razor Trading, and manages a futures and a forex fund.

Brett N. Steenbarger
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. An active trader of the stock indexes, Brett utilizes statistically-based pattern recognition for intraday trading. http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/

NOTE:
Brett has just released his latest book which I have not read (yet) but have provided a link since he will also be published in the November issue of The Traders Journal.

Enhancing Trader Performance: Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover)
by Brett N. Steenbarger

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/10/finding-your-performance-niche.html

Price Headley
Price Headley is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends. He has appeared on CNBC, Fox News, CNNfn, Bloomberg Television and a variety of print and online financial news outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Forbes, Investor's Business Daily, USA Today, and Bloomberg Personal. http://www.bigtrends.com/

Jim Wyckoff
Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years. He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides. Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another. http://www.tradingeducation.com/

Robert W. Colby
Robert W. Colby is managing director of Colby Research in New York and the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which has become the standard reference work throughout the world for technical indicators and trading systems design http://www.tradingeducation.com/

For a complete list of contributors, visit their site: http://www.traders-journal.com/issues/contributors.html

Piranha

p.s. - So what am I writing about?

How the Poker craze can Help you Trade
It’s a 2,800 word article that compares the detailed similarities between trading and poker which have helped me become better at both. I will upload the entire article to this blog after it has been released in the magazine.